نشریه علمی پژوهشی مهندسی آبیاری و آب ایران

نشریه علمی پژوهشی مهندسی آبیاری و آب ایران

مروری بر برخی از شاخص‌های ایستا و ناایستا برای پایش خشکسالی در ایران و سایر کشورها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه منابع آب، دانشکده عمران و نقشه برداری، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان، ایران..
2 گروه اکولوژی، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، پژوهشگاه علوم و تکنولوژی پیشرفته و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان، ایران
3 دانشکده مهندسی عمران و نقشه برداری، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان، ایران.
4 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ولی‌عصر(عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران
10.22125/iwe.2023.404878.1729
چکیده
تغییرات آب ‌و هوایی و فعالیت‌های انسانی دو محرک اصلی اثرگذار بر چرخه هیدرولوژیکی و ایستایی/ناایستایی سیستم‌های هیدرولوژیکی محسوب می‌شوند. نتایج تحقیقات دو دهه اخیر نشان می‌دهد که این شاخص‌ها در محیط ناایستای فعلی از جمله در زمینه تغییرات اقلیمی و فعالیت‌های انسانی، از اعتبار لازم برخوردار نیستند. هدف مقاله حاضر، علاوه بر بررسی شاخص‌های خشکسالی مورد استفاده در شرایط ایستا، ارائه مروری جامع از جدیدترین شاخص‌های خشکسالی در شرایط ناایستا و تبیین چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های تحقیقات آتی است. در این راستا، ابتدا شاخص‌هایی که روش‌شناسی آنها عمدتا برای شرایط ایستای آب و هوایی پیشنهاد شده، بررسی می‌گردد. سپس، به مرور مهمترین شاخص‌های خشکسالی که در حالت ناایستای آب و هوایی در ایران و سایر مناطق دنیا توسعه داده شده‌اند، پرداخته می‌شود. مطالعه و مرور ابزارها و روش‌های مبتنی بر ناایستایی در تعیین شاخص‌های ناایستا از دیگر عواملی است که در مقاله حاضر بدان پرداخته خواهد شد. مرور تحقیقات مختلف نشان می دهد که شاخص‌هایی همانند NSPI، NSRI، NSPEI، NRDI از مهترین شاخص‌های ناایستایی هستند که برای کمّی کردن خشکسالی‌های هواشناسی/ هیدرولوژیکی کاربرد دارند. از منظر روش‌شناسی نیز همه تحقیقات، از مدل جمعی تعمیم‌یافته برای مکان، مقیاس و شکل (GAMLSS) برای مدلسازی رفتار ناایستای شاخص‌ها استفاده کرده‌اند. نتایج کلی مرور این تحقیقات نشان می‌دهد که احتساب عوامل ناایستایی در شاخص‌های ایستای خشکسالی، باعث پایش دقیق‌تر خشکسالی از منظر شدت و فراوانی آن می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

A Review of Stationary and Non-Stationary Indices for Drought Monitoring in Iran and other Countries

نویسندگان English

Sahar Delavar 1
Sedigheh Anvari 2
Mohammad Najafzadeh 3
Farshad Fathian 4
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran.
2 Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Science, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
3 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Water Science & Engineering, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan
چکیده English

Climate changes and human activities are the two main factors affecting the hydrological cycle and stationery/ non-stationary of hydrological systems. The existing indicators for drought monitoring are based on the assumption of stability of atmospheric conditions and environmental factors, and the research results of the last two decades indicate that these indicators do not have the necessary validity in the current non-stationary environment. Therefore, in general, the aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive review of the latest drought indicators in non-stationary conditions and to express the challenges and opportunities of future research. In this regard, the indicators that have been developed for different types of droughts should be reviewed first, since the methodology of these indicators is mainly proposed for stationary weather conditions, then we will review some of these indicators that In a non-stationary state, it is developed in Iran and other regions of the world. Studying and reviewing tools and methods for calculating non-stationary in determining non-stationary drought indicators is one of the other factors that will be discussed in this article. A review of various research showed that indices such as NSPI, NSRI, NSPEI, NRDI, etc. were among the most important non-stationary indices that were used to quantify meteorological/hydrological droughts. From the methodological point of view, all the research used the generalized collective model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) to model the non-stationary behavior of indicators.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

GAMLSS
drought
stationary/non-stationary
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